A recent study led by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) and published in The Lancet projects a significant rise in global childhood and adolescent obesity by 2050. The research indicates that one in six individuals aged five to 24 will be obese within the next 25 years, totaling approximately 360 million young people.
Additionally, about one-third of this age group, or 385 million, are expected to be overweight. These alarming projections underscore the urgent need for comprehensive public health interventions to address the escalating obesity crisis among youth.
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The study highlights a dramatic increase in obesity rates over recent decades. From 1990 to 2021, the global obesity rate for individuals aged five to 24 tripled, rising by 244 percent to 174 million. This surge suggests that existing strategies to combat obesity have been insufficient, leaving a generation of young people vulnerable to associated health complications. As of 2021, 493 million children and adolescents were classified as overweight or obese.
‘A vulnerable population’
Jessica Kerr, PhD, of MCRI emphasized the critical need for immediate action, stating, “Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic. Prevention is key as obesity rarely resolves after adolescence.”
She further warned of the extensive burden this trend places on health systems and economies, noting the increased risks of diabetes, cancer, heart problems, respiratory issues, fertility challenges, and mental health disorders associated with high Body Mass Index (BMI).
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Kerr also pointed out the potential for these health issues to affect future generations, stating, “This giant burden will not only cost the health system and the economy billions, but complications associated with a high BMI … will negatively impact our children and adolescents now and into the future, even holding the potential to impact our grandchildren’s risk of obesity and quality of life for decades to come.”
The analysis, released on World Obesity Day, utilized data from the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The study assessed current overweight and obesity levels and provided forecasts across 204 countries and territories. Projections indicate that nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru, and Tonga will experience the highest prevalence of obesity. Meanwhile, countries including China, Egypt, India, and the US are expected to have the largest number of children and adolescents with obesity by 2050.
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In Australia, the situation is particularly concerning. The country has witnessed one of the fastest transitions to obesity globally among its youth. Currently, Australian girls are more likely to be obese than merely overweight. Projections for 2050 suggest that among Australians aged five to 24, approximately 2.2 million will be obese, with an additional 1.6 million classified as overweight.
Resources absent in at-risk regions
Kerr highlighted regions at heightened risk, stating, “Without urgent policy reform, the transition to obesity will be particularly rapid in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and in the Caribbean, where the rise is concurrent with high population numbers and limited resources.”
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She emphasized the necessity for national surveillance systems to monitor obesity trends, especially in areas historically focused on combating undernutrition and stunting. Kerr also stressed the importance of targeting older adolescent girls, aged 15 to 24, for interventions to prevent intergenerational transmission of obesity and related chronic conditions.
Professor Susan Sawyer of MCRI called for governmental investment in multifaceted strategies to address the root causes of obesity. She stated, “While people and families can work to balance their physical activity, diet, and sleep, everything in our environments works to counteract these efforts.” Sawyer advocated for regulatory measures such as taxing sugar-sweetened beverages, banning junk food advertising aimed at young people, and funding healthy meals in schools. She also suggested broader policy initiatives, including urban planning reforms to promote active lifestyles.