Today in the UK, the unfortunate news of mass redundancies at meatless farms, as was sadly predicted last week. And right on cue, the mainstream media was ready and waiting, sharpening its knives, eager to assign the now tried and tested narrative that it heralded the death of an industry.
Earlier this month, UK manufacturer Plant & Bean also called in administrators who said that “businesses across the food and drink sector, and particularly in highly competitive sub-sectors such as alternative proteins, are facing enormous pressure at the moment with rising costs impacting profitability,” the meatless firm’s Mirroring founder Morten Toft-Bech, who laments that “functionally Meatless Farm is doing really well, but managing the short notice we’ve been given from investors to resolve cash flow pressures is proving difficult.”
“This is what change looks like.”
These businesses, among a myriad of factors, faced rising operating costs during the lifestyle crisis. Their closure is not caused by the death or stagnation of an industry or a decline in demand for plant-based products. As we know, the initial genesis of the crisis was just the opposite – the plant-based post success beyond the IPO was too massive to sustain and would surely hit peaks and plateaus. Maturity was, and is, happening before our eyes.
“This fascinating, fast-moving field is just getting started. Counting it out because it’s facing challenges and hitting roadblocks is like dismissing any other transformative innovation in its early days. Navigating and building the path to scale and adoption will take years. This looks like a change,” GFI said.
And here lies our manifesto. This changes. That is evolution.
The shakeout was always predictable
In November 2022, Beyond Meat CEO Ethan Brown announced the company’s losses in an earnings call, saying that inflation had a heavy impact on sales, with price-weary consumers opting for cheaper protein as the cost of living rose around the planet. “While we remain the leader in the refrigerated plant-based meat category, the amount of competition has eroded some of our segments…a shakeout appears to be underway, and we expect more brands to either retreat or consolidate a less cluttered playing field. In the interim,” Brown commented.
A few months later, in a strategic U-turn, Kellogg Co. Expresses that it intends to retain its plant-based-foods operations. Chief executive Steven Cahillane told analysts: “We see an impending shakeout. It’s already happening. And there will be a few players standing there.”
Gartner Hype Cycle
The Gartner cycle has been cited several times as an accurate explanation of our current situation, as recently noted here by former Impossible Foods and Tesla executive Rachel Conrad. The cycle represents the maturity, adoption and application of new technologies and offers a conceptual representation of their maturity and is certainly worth revisiting in this context.
“As a lifelong problem solver and innovator, I was guided by a tried and true model explaining the arc of innovation – the Gartner Hype Cycle,” explains Eben Baer, Ecovative Design and founder of MyForest Foods. Ed for Vegconomist. The “graph” does a great job of defining how a promising innovation enters the market, gains momentum, invests, and like-minded innovators. The excitement subsided as early industry leaders pushed back, challenged and brought to the fore the key flaws in the innovation.”
Most pertinently, Baer added, “The current landscape doesn’t pose a problem for most companies in the space. In fact, history promises that we’re just getting started,” echoing what others in the space have urged, such as Dow Foods’ Albert Tseng, China’s plant-based In our recent discussion about the industry. “Let’s not talk about booms and busts, because from a consumer engagement perspective, we haven’t even started yet,” said Tseng.
“We feel more optimistic than ever.”
We spoke with Alexandra Clark of impact investing firm Sentient Ventures to get a VC firm’s perspective on the space. “We feel more optimistic than ever about animal alternatives. From a VC perspective, we better understand consumer acceptance of these products and barriers to adoption,” he explains.
“…now is the best time to capitalize on the future of food by investing in it”
“This means we can better identify companies that address these barriers, with sensory experience, nutrition and value at the top of the list. Despite the recent overload of negative headlines, the space is still poised for significant growth in the coming decade, and with recent valuation declines, now is the best time to capitalize on it by investing in the future of food.“ adds Alexandra.
This sentiment is also felt in food service. Allen Zelden, co-founder of Boldly Foods, commented on the situation: “Having spoken to so many foodservice operators in Chicago at the NRA, I’ve never been more excited and confident. The foodservice industry doesn’t want the next buzz thing. They want tasty, accessible, versatile and competitive offerings, a variety of offerings from a seamless source to satisfy the interests of their existing eco-conscious and eco-curious consumers – quite simply. The real catalyst for category growth is ultimately creating more, and what is today, new demand for a very nascent category.
And newborn is the key word here. Yes, heritage brands like Quorn or Tofurky have been around for decades, but the new wave, plant-based 2.0 and accompanying plant-based technology, only emerged a few years ago. What we are seeing is leveling and correction.
Signs of Consolidation Division
Plant meat brand Andy Shovell, co-founder of Meatless Farms, commented to Vegiconmist today, speaking about Meatless Farm’s potential bankruptcy: “It goes without saying that our thoughts, as a team, go out to those who work at Meatless Farm – or with it. . This must be a hugely stressful time.
“This rationale is very common in high-growth and emerging sectors.”
“This is a sign of a segment that is consolidating and responding to consumers’ need for brands that truly signpost quality, and experience little departure from eating animal-based foods. This rationale is very common for high-growth and emerging categories, for example, craft beer and smoothies have seen similar processes.
“My view is that consumers will appreciate the renewed focus on product quality and less distracting fixtures. Most people would agree that in 2021, there were too many brands in the plant-based category with huge differences in product quality and price. Although these signals are not positive, it is usually quite easy to explain to investors why brands have exited the market. Investors are also accustomed to seeing fast-growing segments suffer consolidation as they mature.”
The calm after the storm
To wrap up a story that’s only just begun, let’s hear from Carlotta Lucas, Senior Corporate Engagement Manager at the Good Food Institute.
“While inflationary pressures and price premiums led to a slowdown in global retail sales last year, the overall trend is that appetite for plant-based meats continues to grow as consumers seek more sustainable alternatives. This is demonstrated by our recent NielsenIQ analysis – which found sales in 13 European countries rose to €2 billion last year while other categories, including plant-based seafood and cheese, saw double-digit growth.
“Now, plant-based foods are where solar panels were in the 1990s.”
“However, these foods still represent a small proportion of the total meat, dairy and seafood market, and the plant-based segment will only truly succeed when it can compete with animal products on taste, price and convenience. At the moment, plant-based foods are where In the 1990s, solar panels were available to environmentally-conscious consumers willing to pay a premium, but needed public and private investment to improve quality and lower prices.
“As governments and businesses around the world begin to invest and consumer demand continues to grow, the plant-based story is just beginning.”
We at vegconomist will try to reflect the plant-based story as it unfolds and continues.
Thanks to everyone involved.
Additional information:
- GFI’s NielsenIQ analysis found:
- Sales of plant-based meat to grow to €2 billion in 2022
- Plant-based alternatives now make up 11% of the overall milk market
- Plant-based inflation has had less impact than conventional meat and dairy prices. In 2022 plant-based meat prices increased by 1% while conventional meat prices increased by 11% and plant-based milk prices increased by 1%, while conventional milk increased by 17%.
- A 2022 survey found that 40% of consumers worldwide believe that most people will replace conventional animal products with plant-based foods in the next 10 years.
- Research elsewhere shows that 66% of consumers aged 16 to 40 (Gen Z and Millennials) in 10 countries expect to eat more plant-based products in the future. These generations are projected to comprise 69% of global spending by 2040 (less than half today).
- Last year, GFI Europe conducted a survey examining consumer attitudes in France, Spain, Germany and Italy. The survey, which included 4,096 respondents, found that more than half of consumers reported reducing their consumption of conventional meat, with many switching to plant-based meats.
- The Synthesis Capital report found that the current slowdown in the plant-based alternative protein market is not unexpected, as new technologies are needed to improve product quality and affordability compared to animal-based products. We predict that with continued technological innovation and product launches, alternative proteins will continue to see market share increase and hit a “tipping point” for adoption in the late 2020s, with exponential growth continuing into the 2030s.
More sources of good information:
https://www.intrafish.com/sustainability/the-death-of-the-plant-based-category-has-been-much-exaggerated-uk-analyst-says-sector-still-has-room-to- Increase/2-1-1458487
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/637691971/plant-based-meat-market-an-escalating-sector-with-projected-growth-to-reach-33-3-billion-by-2031-20- 5-cagr
https://insight.factset.com/is-plant-based-innovation-emerging-as-a-solution-investable-opportunity?hs_preview=msetWbSH-116748758174
https://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=306061